TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is rapidly moving westward toward the Lesser Antilles. Although satellite images show a large and well-organized area of thunderstorms associated with the wave, there are no signs of a surface circulation, and pressures are not falling significantly at this time. This system has the potential for some slow development during the next day or two, but the best chance for tropical cyclone formation is likely to be by the middle of next week, when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday, and then the activity should spread westward across
Hispaniola. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure system centered about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands is poorly organized. This system is moving slowly westward, and development appears to be unlikely due
to unfavorable upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
$$
Forecaster Avila NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
RÉSUMÉ EN FRANÇAIS
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is rapidly moving westward toward the Lesser Antilles. Although satellite images show a large and well-organized area of thunderstorms associated with the wave, there are no signs of a surface circulation, and pressures are not falling significantly at this time. This system has the potential for some slow development during the next day or two, but the best chance for tropical cyclone formation is likely to be by the middle of next week, when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday, and then the activity should spread westward across
Hispaniola. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure system centered about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands is poorly organized. This system is moving slowly westward, and development appears to be unlikely due
to unfavorable upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
$$
Forecaster Avila NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
RÉSUMÉ EN FRANÇAIS
- SEULS LE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ET METEO-FRANCE FONT AUTORITÉ EN CAS DE CYCLONE
- Vigilance Jaune Météo-France + Préfecture en vigueur pour St Martin. Fortes pluies, inondations soudaines, vents forts, mer forte, orages.
- Le système actuellement à 250 km à l'Est de la Martinique ne représente plus de grand danger pour nos îles, aucune formation significative n'étant attendue avant le milieu de la semaine prochaine (sur l'extrême-ouest des Caraïbes). Ce système peut cependant apporter du très mauvais temps sur la région jusqu'à demain. Voir le bulletin du NHC pour plus de détails. Les chances de formation dans les prochaines 48 h sont tout-de-même de 30%. Donc, restons vigilants.
- Le système au sud-est des îles du Cap-Vert (Capo Verde) est en perte de vitesse: plus que 10% de chances de formation
Modèles informatiques -- INVEST 97L -- Computer models
La saison des Cyclones va du 1er Juin au 30 Novembre...
Prochains noms de cyclones:
C'est la liste de 2010 qui est réutilisée sauf pour les noms retirés (Igor & Tomas remplacés par Ian & Tobias).
- Earl (déjà utilisé en 2010. L'ouragan Earl a fait quelques dégâts sur St Martin le 31/8/2010)
- Fiona (déjà utilisé aussi en septembre 2010. N'a pas dépassé le stade de Tempête Tropicale)
2 MENACES POSSIBLES POUR NOS ÎLES - 2 POSSIBLE THREATS TO OUR ISLANDS.
- INVEST 97L: FORMATION CYCLONIQUE POSSIBLE MAIS PEU PROBABLE (30%) SUR NOTRE RÉGION. ARRIVÉE: AUJOURD'HUI et DEMAIN
St Martin: vigilance jaune
Guadeloupe: vigilance jaune
Martinique: vigilance orange
Guadeloupe: vigilance jaune
Martinique: vigilance orange
PRUDENCE MAXIMUM RECOMMANDÉE AUX PETITS BATEAUX ET BAIGNEURS À PARTIR D'AUJOURD'HUI
ATTENTION AUX ORAGES, FORTES RAFALES, FORTES AVERSES ET INONDATIONS SOUDAINES
Image satellite IR centrée sur nos îles | IR satellite image centered on our islands
Image satellite: Les nuages gris sombres sont des nuages minces contrairement à la réalité.
France: Meteo-France
NBBCmeteo
SMALL CRAFT AND SEA BATHERS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION
BEWARE OF THUNDERSTORMS, STRONG GUSTS, HEAVY SHOWERS AND FLASH FLOODS
- Cela est dû principalement à la brume de sable saharienne qui agit comme un filtre coloré. Note: si vous recevez ces bulletins par email, cliquez sur ce lien pour voir le bulletin original et complet (page web) ou celui-ci pour accéder à tout le site Note: if you receive this forecast via email, click this link to read the original forecast (web page) or this one to access the whole website... |
