BULLETIN FORECAST



lundi 30 novembre 2015


2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends; Slightly Below Average Season
Nov 30th 2015, 11:03, by Lindsay Milbourne
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season ends Monday. Even with the strongest El Niño since the record 1997-1998 event (2015 may even surpass it this Winter) there are 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.  In an average Atlantic hurricane season there are 12 named storms, 6 hurricane and 3 major hurricanes. 2015 had a near average number of named storms but a below average number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. This makes sense entirely with long spells of dry air, hostile upper level winds (especially in the Caribbean) and cooler than normal Atlantic water temperatures at times in association with a strong El Niño. The 2015 number of named storms was in line with predictions from NOAA and Dr. Gray and his colleagues at Colorado State University. However, both forecasted fewer major hurricanes. This year’s ACE or Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 60 was relatively low based on the below average number of hurricane and major hurricanes. Many named storms were short-lived in 2015. ACE measures the total energy output of all tropical systems during the entire hurricane season. Two storms made landfall in the U.S. this year. Ana made landfall in South Carolina and Bill made landfall in Texas. For the 10th year in a row Florida was spared from a hurricane landfall. Meanwhile tropical cyclones thrived over the record warm equatorial Pacific waters. In the blockbuster east Pacific season there are 10 major hurricanes. This is the most major hurricanes on record. Patricia was the strongest cyclone ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere. Max sustained winds reached an unprecedented 200 mph and pressure bottomed out at 879 mb. The last named storm Sandra is the latest category 4 storm ever observed in the western hemisphere.


RIEN NE MENACE NOTRE RÉGION
Les restes d'un front froid affectent notre région. Une nouvelle perturbation est attendue à partir de cette nuit.
Partiellement ensoleillé devenant progressivement plus nuageux en cours de journée et la nuit prochaine avec des quelques chances d'averses isolées. Demain à mercredi: fortes chances d'averses. Orages isolés possibles. Vents de est-sud-est à Est 18 à 25 km/h avec des rafales occasionnelles sous grains. Mer très agitée à forte 2 m s'améliorant progressivement 1,5 puis 1,8 m.
ASSEZ FORTE HOULE DE NNE S'AMORTISSANT
RELATIVELY HEAVY NE SWELL SUBSIDING
L'avis de prudence petits bateaux et baigneurs reste en vigueur
 Small craft operators and sea-bathers should continue to exercise caution.
NO THREAT TO OUR REGION 
The remnants of a cold front affects our region. A new disturbance is expected from tonight.
Today and tonight, partly sunny becoming gradually cloudy with a chance of some isolated showers. From tomorrow through Wednesday: high chance of showers. Possible isolated thunderstorms. Easterly to ESE winds 12 to 18 mph with gusts in showers. Moderate to rough seas 6-7 ft gradually subsiding 5-6 ft.